As an American I’m not comfortable in writing this, but allowing Putin to invade East Ukraine would in my opinon be the right stategy to permit an opening for long term stabilization and peace. After the Russian military intervention, drawing worldwide condemnation, what else can Putin do? Where else can he go? The the answer is no place. There is no more fertile ground left for him to invade. He would be unwelcome in Eastern Europe. There are few Russian speakers, supporters, or sympathizers in any of those countries. The so called “aggression” of East Ukraine would stop there, and go no further.
Moreover, what would Europe and the West do to counter Putin’s move? Nothing! Nothing else, no military action on the ground. In the meantime though the West prepares super-sanctions on Russia. The consequences will be almost immediate, and within the year the country will feel its full affects. Already the Russian economy is forecast to grow at near zero this year. Presently Putin is supremely popular in Russia, standings are at a 80-85% approval rating, but this will not last under severe economic stress. Putin should preempt the future as early as possible and act. Are we already in a Cold War setting? Of course. To continue wrangling over a third of Ukraine can only acerbate the worst that is possible, an actual boots on the ground situation would be detrimental to all interests concerned. Let Putin have the Russian speaking provinces, and it will then, and only then, be guaranteed that any futher agression will be severely blocked.
Will Russian history describe Vladimir as weak, backing down to the Western nations whom the Russian people do not favor, trust, and are highly suspicious of? For him will he go down as a national patriot or an impotent leader that gave in to the West? It is his choice to make. Putin has domestic support, virulally every Russian believes the Ukraine is an intrinsic part of Russia since the 1700’s, and mistakenly given over by Nikia Khrushchev’s Soviet Union (Khrushchev a native Ukrainean himself) as a gift of special independence within the Russian Union.
What would Obama do if Pulin invades the Ukraine? I hope nothing, only diplomatically soothing the tears of the frightened Europeans, while not listening to the Right-wing Militarist in the U. S. and NATO, the top guys who will make a bundle on other people’s misery. Undoubtedly, however, Putin will have made a grave mistake by the conquest for the sake Nationalism; yet, to him and to the Russian people he would not have. The two Ukraines are economic basket cases and will cost the West and Russia a bundle of treasure to maintain. It will be a can of worms for Putin to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
All the Best.
PS: If Putin moves into East Ukraine, will that be so bad? For a century under usually nefarious reasons, we called it “Gunboat Diplomacy” and always got away with it because nobody was watching. Those South American citizens, local natives, didn’t want us there nor even speak our language.